Monsoon 2026, El Nino & Climate Signals

The 2026 southwest monsoon opened badly. June rainfall came in about 40% below normal - the weakest June since 2014 and among the driest since 1901 - as a strengthening El Nino throttled the season from the start. The forecast had flagged the risk: IMD's updated outlook put June-September rainfall at just 90% of the long-period average and placed an 84% chance on a below-normal-or-worse season. NOAA now sees roughly a 63% chance the Pacific warm-up hardens into a 'super' El Nino by peak winter. Beneath the immediate stakes for kharif sowing and reservoirs runs a slower worry: research on a weakening Atlantic overturning current and what it could mean for future monsoons.